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JNCI Cancer Spectrum

Oxford University Press (OUP)

Preprints posted in the last 30 days, ranked by how well they match JNCI Cancer Spectrum's content profile, based on 10 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.01% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Five-Year Breast Cancer Risk Prediction From Screening Breast Ultrasound Using Deep Learning

Chen, Y.; Yang, H.; Xu, Y.; Soni, R.; Heacock, L.; Lis, M.; Stanek, A.; Puto, T.; Lewin, A. A.; Moy, L.; Schnabel, F. R.; Shen, Y.

2026-06-24 oncology 10.64898/2026.06.21.26356188 medRxiv
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Objective: To develop and evaluate a deep learning model for five-year breast cancer risk prediction from screening breast ultrasound (BUS) examinations. Methods: This retrospective study included 295,298 breast ultrasound examinations from 122,072 women imaged between 2012 and 2020. Patients were split into training, validation, and test sets; the test set included screening examinations only. BUS-Risk-Net aggregated image features using attention-based multiple instance learning and combined them with age and ultrasound-estimated breast density to predict 2- to 5-year risk. Performance was compared with the full Tyrer-Cuzick model in a matched case-control cohort and with a reduced Tyrer-Cuzick model in the held-out test set. Risk stratification was evaluated within BI-RADS density categories. Results: In the matched case-control cohort (n = 240 women), BUS-Risk-Net achieved a 5-year AUC of 0.632 (95% CI, 0.562-0.702), versus 0.514 for the full Tyrer-Cuzick model (95% CI, 0.440-0.588; p = 0.04). Among 19,548 examinations from 9,015 women eligible for 5-year evaluation in the test set, BUS-Risk-Net achieved an AUC of 0.679 (95% CI, 0.653-0.706), versus 0.594 for the reduced Tyrer-Cuzick model (95% CI, 0.564-0.623; P < .001). Observed 5-year cancer incidence increased across AI-defined risk tiers within each BI-RADS density category, ranging from 0.0% to 5.8% after AI stratification, compared with 2.1% to 3.6% across density categories alone. Discussion: Deep learning models applied to screening breast ultrasound could enable long-term breast cancer risk prediction and stratify risk beyond breast density alone. External and prospective validation is needed before clinical use.

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Partial breast irradiation after lumpectomy with omission of surgical axillary evaluation

Roth O'Brien, D. A.; Boe, L. A.; Mueller, B. A.; Montagna, G.; Hahesy, E. N.; Cuaron, J. J.; Choi, J. I.; Bernstein, M. B.; McCormick, B.; Powell, S. N.; Khan, A. J.; Braunstein, L. Z.

2026-07-01 oncology 10.64898/2026.06.29.26356836 medRxiv
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Sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) is increasingly omitted in early-stage breast cancer, often prompting whole-breast irradiation (WBI). We evaluated partial-breast irradiation (PBI) without axillary surgery among 78 clinically node-negative patients (median age 75) treated from 2014 to 2022. After 53-month median follow-up, no ipsilateral, regional, or distant recurrences occurred. These results demonstrate excellent outcomes and suggest PBI is a feasible, safe alternative to WBI when SLNB is omitted.

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Screen-Detected and Diagnostic Breast Cancers Show Distinct Treatment Pathways and Quality Indicator Performance

Bielcikova, Z.; Tichopad, A.; Rybar, M.; Petrakova, K.; Rozanek, M.; Mothejlova, K.; Dusek, L.; Donin, G.

2026-07-16 oncology 10.64898/2026.07.13.26357901 medRxiv
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Population-based mammography screening improves breast cancer outcomes, but its impact on real-world treatment pathways and quality indicators (QIs) remains incompletely described. We conducted a retrospective nationwide cohort study using linked data from the Czech National Cancer Registry and the National Registry of Reimbursed Health Services. Women aged [&ge;]18 years with a first breast cancer diagnosis between 2017 and 2024 were classified as screen-detected (SCR) or diagnostically-detected (DIG) according to the imaging modality preceding histological verification. Outcomes included stage distribution, untreated cases, first-line treatment, main treatment modality, time to treatment, multidisciplinary team discussion (MDT), centralization to Comprehensive Cancer Centres (COCs), and survival patterns. The verified cohort included 47,648 women: 26,817 SCR cases (56.3 %) and 20,831 DIG cases (43.7 %). In this nationwide analysis, SCR breast cancer was associated with earlier stage at diagnosis and better survival patterns, but also with longer time to treatment and longer time to MDT discussion than DIG-detected disease. Although treatment rates were high and centralization improved over time, substantial regional variation persisted in care pathways, MDT use, and access to COCs. These findings support continued strengthening of screening participation, monitoring of care intervals, and quality assurance of MDT reporting and regional oncology care delivery.

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The MHCII Immune Activation Score predicts risk of recurrence and benefit of taxanes in Basal-like and HER2-enriched breast cancer.

Bernard, P. S.; Chen, B. E.; Gao, D.; Shepherd, L. E.; Nielsen, T. O.; Varley, K. E.

2026-07-01 oncology 10.64898/2026.06.24.26356102 medRxiv
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Purpose: There are no clinically validated biomarkers to assess recurrence risk and guide treatment de-escalation in Basal-like and HER2-enriched breast cancer. Taxane-based chemotherapy remains a cornerstone of treatment despite significant toxicity. We evaluated the prognostic and predictive utility of the MHCII Immune Activation Score (IA Score) in these subtypes. Experimental Design: We retrospectively analyzed Basal-like and HER2-enriched breast cancers from the NCIC CTG MA.21 trial, which randomized patients with node-positive or high-risk node-negative disease to adjuvant chemotherapy with or without taxanes. MA.21 predated immune checkpoint inhibitors and routine HER2-targeted therapy. Subtype was previously assigned by PAM50. The 36-gene MHCII-IA assay used RNA from formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tissue. Multivariable Cox and Kaplan-Meier analyses evaluated associations between IA Score, clinicopathologic variables, tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs), relapse-free survival (RFS), and taxane benefit. Results: Among Basal-like (N=317) and HER2-enriched (N=155) tumors, higher IA Score was associated with improved RFS independent of lymph node status and provided stronger prognostic discrimination than TILs. Node-negative patients with high IA Score had excellent outcomes (8-year RFS >90%) versus those with low IA Score (8-year RFS <76%). In node-positive disease, high IA Score increased 8-year RFS by >10% relative to low IA Score. IA Score stratified taxane benefit: node-positive IA-low patients benefited, whereas IA-high tumors had favorable outcomes regardless of regimen. Conclusions: MHCII Immune Activation Score is a prognostic and predictive biomarker in Basal-like and HER2-enriched breast cancer. High IA Score identified patients with excellent outcomes before pembrolizumab, trastuzumab, and taxane-based treatment escalation, providing a rationale for prospective risk-adapted de-escalation strategies.

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Combined triglyceride-glucose and frailty index (TyGFI) and risk of endometrial cancer in U.S. women aged >=45: NHANES 2011-2018 analysis integrating data engineering and machine learning with logistic modeling

Zhou, Y.; Ma, J.; Zhang, Y.

2026-07-04 public and global health 10.64898/2026.07.02.26357105 medRxiv
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Endometrial cancer (EC) incidence is closely linked to metabolic and hormonal factors. The TyGFI, a composite indicator integrating the triglyceride-glucose index and frailty index, may capture combined risk dimensions relevant to EC etiology and prediction. This study aimed to evaluate the association between TyGFI and EC prevalence among U.S. women aged 45 years and older, and to explore its predictive utility using machine-learning approaches. Data were drawn from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2011-2018 cycles. The exposure was TyGFI, and the outcome was EC status ascertained from self-reported cancer history and standardized questionnaires. From an initial 39,156 participants, we excluded males, individuals aged under 45 years, those missing TyGFI components or EC data, and extreme TyGFI values, yielding a final cohort of 2,837 women. We performed exploratory feature selection and built six predictive models using machine-learning algorithms to identify key predictors and evaluate TyGFI's contribution to model performance. Survey-weighted multivariable logistic regression estimated the association between TyGFI and EC prevalence with sequential adjustment for covariates. In a weighted sample representing 30,489,082 U.S. women aged 45 years and older, higher TyGFI was significantly associated with EC prevalence. After full adjustment, each unit increase in TyGFI corresponded to a 57% increase in the odds of EC (odds ratio 1.570; 95% confidence interval 1.033-2.370; p = 0.0322), with a significant dose-response trend across quartiles (p for trend = 0.0257). Among six machine-learning models, CatBoost achieved the highest predictive performance, with an area under the curve of 0.999. SHAP analysis identified TyGFI as the most influential predictor, followed by age and serum albumin. In this nationally representative sample of middle-aged and older U.S. women, TyGFI was significantly associated with EC prevalence and emerged as the dominant predictor in machine-learning models. These findings suggest that TyGFI may enhance risk stratification for EC beyond established reproductive and metabolic factors, though prospective studies are warranted to validate its clinical utility.

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Loss of either RASSF1A alone or in combination with Caveolin-1 inhibition is associated with different premalignant histopathological alterations in the mammary glands of transgenic mice

Cotarelo, C. L.; Weber, H. T.; Rosswag, S.; Wagner, T.; Schaefer, I.; Sleeman, J. P.; Thaler, S.

2026-07-15 cancer biology 10.64898/2026.07.14.738049 medRxiv
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Analyses of human breast carcinomas (BCs) and premalignant breast lesions show that the loss of RASSF1A is an early event in the development of ER+ BCs, which correlates linearly with malignant progression. This observation suggests that RASSF1A inhibition is important for the development and progression of ER+ BCs. In addition to RASSF1A, concurrent caveolin-1 (Cav-1) inhibition may further promote ER+ breast carcinogenesis. In the present study, transgenic Rassf1a-/- and Cav-1(-/-) single as well as Rassf1a-/-, Cav-1(-/-) double knockout mice were used to investigate the impact of single or combined Rassf1a and Cav-1 inactivation on BC initiation. Loss of either one or both proteins led to different, pre-malignant histopathological alterations within the mammary glands of the mice, but not to fully developed BC, confirming that Rassf1a and Cav-1 are both important for maintaining the integrity of mammary gland epithelial structure, but suggesting that further intracellular changes or extracellular factors are required for the development of luminal BC when both genes are lost.

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Beyond Nodal Status: Interactions Between Molecular Subtype, Tumor Burden, and Survival in 12,225 Patients with Breast Cancer

Akrami, M.; Tavakolian, N.; Arianpour, H.; Moosazadeh, A.; Rajabi, A. H.; Keumarsi, Z.; Ghoddusi Johari, M.; Zangouri, V.; Talei, A.

2026-06-24 surgery 10.64898/2026.06.22.26356207 medRxiv
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Background Lymph node status and molecular subtype are among the most established prognostic factors in breast cancer. However, the extent to which their prognostic effects vary across different tumor size categories and clinical subgroups remains incompletely understood. We investigated the interplay between nodal status, molecular subtype, and tumor size in a large real world breast cancer cohort and developed a prognostic nomogram for individualized survival prediction. Methods A total of 12,225 women with invasive breast cancer from the Shiraz Breast Cancer Registry were analyzed. Patients were stratified according to tumor size, lymph node status, and molecular subtype. Overall survival (OS) and disease free survival (DFS) were evaluated using Kaplan Meier analyses and subgroup comparisons. Logistic regression was performed to identify predictors of lymph node involvement, while Cox regression was used to determine independent prognostic factors. A nomogram was subsequently developed and internally validated for prediction of 3-year and 5-year OS. Results Of 12,225 patients, 41.7% had lymph node positive disease. Across nearly all tumor size categories and molecular subtypes, nodal involvement was associated with significantly worse OS and DFS. Notably, the survival disadvantage associated with nodal positivity was more pronounced among patients with larger tumors and among those with HER2 positive and triple negative breast cancer (TNBC). Although TNBC demonstrated the lowest rate of lymph node involvement among molecular subtypes (adjusted OR 0.54, 95% CI 0.46-0.63), it appeared to show one of the largest survival gaps between node positive and node negative disease. In the overall cohort, survival outcomes generally ranked from best to worst as Luminal A, Luminal B, HER2 positive, and TNBC. However, survival differences among molecular subtypes were not consistently observed across all tumor size and nodal status subgroups. When significant differences were present, Luminal A and Luminal B tumors consistently showed superior outcomes compared with HER2 positive and TNBC tumors. Multivariable analysis identified lymph node status, tumor size, molecular subtype, lymphovascular invasion, tumor necrosis, type of surgery, radiotherapy, hormone therapy, and adjuvant chemotherapy as independent prognostic factors. A nomogram integrating clinicopathological and treatment variables demonstrated good predictive performance, with time dependent AUCs of 0.749 and 0.751 for 3 year and 5 year OS, respectively, and showed good calibration. Conclusions The prognostic impact of lymph node status is not uniform across breast cancer subgroups and appears particularly pronounced in larger tumors and biologically aggressive subtypes. Despite a lower likelihood of nodal involvement, TNBC showed substantial outcome deterioration when nodal metastasis was present. These findings highlight the importance of jointly considering nodal status, molecular subtype, and tumor burden in prognostic assessment.

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NEO-EXCEL: Neoadjuvant trial of pre-operative exemestane or letrozole, with or without celecoxib, in the treatment of oestrogen receptor-positive postmenopausal early breast cancer: A phase III, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial

Francis, A.; Patel, A.; Pirrie, S. J.; Prest, C.; Brookes, C. L.; Bartlett, J. M. S.; Stein, R. C.; Dunn, J. A.; Canney, P.; Poole, C. J.; Patel, A. R.; Grant, M.; Herring, K.; Southgate, E.; Gaunt, C.; Bowden, S. J.; Rea, D. W.

2026-07-15 oncology 10.64898/2026.07.13.26356308 medRxiv
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Background The NEO-EXCEL trial hypothesised that aromatase inhibitor (AI)-activity as neoadjuvant endocrine therapy for early-stage breast cancer in postmenopausal women may be enhanced in combination with cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) inhibition. Methods NEO-EXCEL was a phase III, placebo-controlled, randomised trial in postmenopausal women with oestrogen receptor (ER)-positive resectable breast cancer with tumours [&ge;]2cm. Women were randomised (1:1:1:1): exemestane (25mg od) plus celecoxib (400mg bid), exemestane (25mg od) plus placebo (bid), letrozole (2.5mg od) plus celecoxib (400mg bid), or letrozole (2.5mg od) plus placebo (bid). Primary endpoint was clinical response (complete/partial) measured by callipers at 16 weeks; a standard assessment method at the time of trial inception. Sixteen-week ultrasound-determined response was the main secondary outcome to verify the calliper-based primary. Analysis was intention-to-treat. Results Due to slow accrual the trial design was redesigned from a definitive 2x2, 1000 patient trial to one randomising 269 patients between 20-Nov-2007 and 29-Apr-2014; 34.9% were human epithelial growth factor receptor 2-positive. AI+celecoxib produced a significantly greater objective clinical response than AI+placebo (72.9% vs 55.6%, P=0.003), which remained after adjustment for AI type and stratification factors (odds ratio = 2.3; 95% CI 1.3-3.8, P=0.003). Ultrasound-determined response was however not significantly enhanced (48.7% [AI+celecoxib] vs 41.2% [AI+placebo], P=0.34). Progression free survival and overall survival remained similar (median follow-up = 5.1 years [range 0.1-7.1]). Conclusions NEO-EXCEL is the first completed, phase III double-blind, placebo-controlled trial testing the addition of celecoxib to AI as neoadjuvant endocrine therapy in early breast cancer. Clinical response showed significant improvement but there was no significant ultrasound-determined response improvement nor any surgical or long-term outcome evidence of AI+COX-2 inhibition improving treatment outcomes for ER+ early resectable postmenopausal breast cancers. Use of short-term celecoxib at 400mg bd for 16 weeks was safe with no excess cardiotoxicity observed.

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The Effect of Marital Status on Suicide Risk Among Patients with Breast Cancer: A Population-Based sIPTW Competing Risk Analysis

Zou, X.; Shi, J.

2026-07-04 oncology 10.64898/2026.07.01.26357044 medRxiv
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Background: Breast cancer survivors often experience psychological distress that may increase suicide risk. Marital status, a proxy for social support, may influence this risk, but its role within a competing-risk framework is unclear. This study examined the association between marital status and suicide mortality and assessed modification by socioeconomic and geographic factors. Methods: This is a population-based cohort study using SEER data, including adults diagnosed with primary breast cancer from 2000 to 2022. Marital status was classified as married/partnered or unmarried/non-partnered. Baseline characteristics were balanced using subdistribution inverse probability of treatment weighting (sIPTW). Suicide mortality was analyzed using sIPTW-weighted Fine-Gray competing-risk models, treating non-suicide deaths as competing events. Landmark, subgroup, interaction, and sensitivity analyses were performed. Results: Among 825,047 patients, 40.7% were unmarried. Covariates were well balanced after weighting (SMD <0.01). During follow-up, 529 suicide deaths occurred. Unmarried status was associated with higher suicide mortality (sHR = 1.34, 95% CI: 1.12-1.60). Male sex and estrogen receptor-negative tumors increased risk, while older age and non-White race were protective. Findings were consistent in Cox models (HR = 1.45) and sensitivity analyses (sHR = 1.42). Landmark analyses showed persistent associations at 1, 3, and 5 years. The association was attenuated in the highest income quartile but not modified by rural-urban status. Conclusions: Unmarried breast cancer patients had higher suicide mortality. These findings support integrating psychosocial assessment and targeted suicide prevention into survivorship care, especially for socially vulnerable groups.

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Estimating (stage-)sojourn time for multiple cancer-sites: literature review and structured elicitation of expert beliefs

Jankovic, D.; Palmer, S.; Callister, M. E. J.; Lyratzopoulos, G.; Dias, S.; Welton, N. J.; Payne, K.; Soares, M. O.

2026-07-09 oncology 10.64898/2026.06.26.26355688 medRxiv
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Preclinical cancer sojourn time, defined here as the duration a cancer is undetected but detectable, is important for understanding disease progression and evaluating screening policies. This study aims to robustly characterise empirical evidence and existing knowledge over mean sojourn times across 21 stageable tumour sites, including stage-specific preclinical cancer sojourn times and the sojourn time of circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA)-positive cancers. We updated an existing systematic review through to February 2025 to extract population-level empirical sojourn time estimates derived from mathematical models of primary screening data. To synthesise this heterogeneous literature, quantify uncertainty, and obtain estimates for cancer-sites lacking empirical evidence, we conducted a formal Structured Expert Elicitation involving 15 clinical experts. The elicitation was grounded on the systematic review results, supplemented by an evidence dossier that included survival data and outcomes from relevant ctDNA cancer studies. The systematic review revealed heterogeneity in existing literature, which focused on a small subset of screened cancers (e.g., breast, cervical, colorectal). The elicitation successfully generated comprehensive probability distributions of overall mean sojourn times for all 21 cancer-sites (representing the site of tumour origin), as well as stage-specific sojourn times and overall sojourn times for ctDNA-positive cancers across 14 cancer-sites. This study used robust methodology to quantitatively describe existing evidence and experts' beliefs on the sojourn time of multiple cancer-sites, also describing uncertainty. Such estimates are important for future evaluations of the clinical impact, potential for overdiagnosis and subsequent cost-effectiveness of emerging screening technologies, including multi-cancer detection tests.

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Intimate Partner Violence and Cancer Risk: A Systematic Review of Evidence and Gaps

Glavas, D.; Makoudjou, M. A.; Melis, G.; Bernardele, L.; Paolocci, N.; Scarpa, M.; Agrimi, J.; Spolverato, G.

2026-07-16 oncology 10.64898/2026.07.16.26358254 medRxiv
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ABSTRACT Background: Despite its high prevalence and established impact on women's health, the long-term biological effects of Intimate Partner Violence (IPV) remain poorly understood. In particular, its potential role in increasing cancer risk has received limited attention. This review examines whether IPV may be associated with elevated cancer risk in women. Methods: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis in accordance with PRISMA and MOOSE guidelines to evaluate whether IPV may be associated with cancer risk. Eligible studies included adult women ([&ge;]18 years) with documented IPV exposure and cancer or precancerous outcomes. We searched PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, and Google Scholar for articles published from 2000 to 2025. Study quality was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS). A random-effects meta-analysis was performed on longitudinal studies reporting adjusted risk estimates. Results: Thirteen studies were included in the qualitative synthesis, but only two met criteria for meta-analysis, both reporting on cervical cancer. The pooled odds ratio was 3.00 (95% CI: 2.05 - 4.38; I2 = 0%). A separate pooled prevalence analysis of six retrospective studies showed that 32.2% of women with cancer reported a lifetime history of IPV. Study quality ranged from low to high. Conclusions: This review underscores the limited and heterogeneous nature of the existing evidence on IPV as a potential cancer risk factor. While preliminary findings suggest a possible association, particularly with cervical cancer, the scarcity of high-quality longitudinal studies and the methodological variability in the studies reviewed prevent definitive conclusions regarding causal linkage. Further research, particularly prospective and mechanistic studies, is needed to clarify the relationship between IPV and oncogenesis across different cancer types and to identify underlying biological pathways.

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Indocyanine Green Fluorescence-Guided Sentinel Lymph Node Biopsy in Breast Cancer Using the MARS Near-Infrared Imaging System: A Prospective Single-Center Feasibility Study

Kurdi, F.; Kurdi, Y.; Kurdi, M.; Pisareva, T. N.; Sukortseva, N. S.; Shiryaev, A. A.; Istranov, A. L.; Reshetov, I. V.

2026-07-01 oncology 10.64898/2026.06.30.26356987 medRxiv
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Background. Sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) is an essential component of axillary staging in breast cancer. Fluorescence-guided mapping with indocyanine green (ICG) enables real-time visualization of lymphatic drainage; however, the parameters of fluorescence-signal recording require standardization. Objective. To assess the technical feasibility and clinical applicability of SLNB with ICG under near-infrared (NIR) imaging guidance in patients with breast cancer. Materials and Methods. This prospective single-center study included 30 patients who underwent ICG-guided SLNB between 2023 and 2025. In 24 patients, ICG mapping was combined with technetium-99m radioisotope navigation; in 6 patients, ICG guidance alone was used. The protocol comprised periareolar ICG injection, standardized imaging conditions, and fluorescence-index recording. Results. The protocol was completed in all 30 patients. Fluorescent visualization of the lymphatic pathway and/or the sentinel lymph node (SLN) was achieved in every case, and no ICG-related adverse reactions were recorded. The mean fluorescence index was 213.0 +/- 24.7, the median was 206.0 [192.5-237.2], and the min-max was 180-255. Conclusion. SLNB with ICG under NIR imaging guidance demonstrated technical feasibility in a prospective single-center cohort. Quantitative fluorescence-index recording may serve as a component of standardizing intraoperative fluorescence guidance. Keywords: breast cancer; sentinel lymph node biopsy; indocyanine green; near-infrared imaging; fluorescence lymphography; fluorescence index; axillary staging.

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Organised cancer screening among women who receive medically assisted reproduction treatments

Walker, A. R.; Odahl, S.; Venetis, C.; Jorm, L.; Hacker, N. F.; Chapman, M.; Anazodo, A. C.; Norman, R. J.; Stern, C.; Sansom-Daly, U. M.; Chambers, G. M.; Vajdic, C. M.

2026-07-07 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.07.05.26357336 medRxiv
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There are no published data on cancer screening by women using medically assisted reproduction (MAR). Such data would aid interpretation of the cancer incidence and risk profiles for this group. Using linked population-based Australian health registries and administrative datasets, we compared organised publicly funded cervical and breast screening episodes for women who received one of three types of MAR and matched women who did not between 1991 and 2016. We modelled the proportion of women screened in the three years before and after first MAR treatment, adjusting for age, remoteness, parity, socio-economic disadvantage, cancer history, and uptake of the other screening program. After adjustment, a greater proportion of women who received MAR than women who did not had cervical screening before MAR (77.3%-84.1% vs 57.5%-62.0%, depending on treatment) and after MAR (77.0%-78.5% vs 68.1%-68.3%). Contrastingly, breast screening estimates were 7.6%-9.6% vs 9.3%-10.5% before MAR and 11.0%-15.0% vs 12.8%-14.9% after MAR.

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The urinary-metabolite-based lung cancer index (uLCI): an interpretable machine-learning risk model for early-stage disease

Khan, M. A.; Mathe, E. A.; Pine, S. R.; Gonzalez, F. J.; Harris, C. C.; Wang, X. W.; Patel, D. P.

2026-06-29 oncology 10.64898/2026.06.26.26356700 medRxiv
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Background Five-year survival from lung cancer exceeds 60% at stage I-II but falls below 10% once metastasis occurs. Low-dose CT (LDCT) screening reduces mortality in heavy smokers but carries a false-positive rate of approximately 29% and is restricted to smoking-based eligibility, leaving most cases undetected. We aimed to develop and independently validate an interpretable machine-learning urinary metabolite risk index (uLCI) for non-invasive lung cancer detection. Methods Four urinary metabolites - creatine riboside (CR), N-acetylneuraminic acid (NANA), 27-nor-5-beta-cholestane-3-alpha,7-alpha,12-alpha,24,25-pentol (CP), and cortisol sulfate (CS) - and three clinical variables (age, race, smoking) were integrated by Lasso-regularised logistic regression into a uLCI score. The model was developed under 10-fold cross-validation in the NCI-Maryland (NCI-MD) cohort (n=845; 470 controls, 375 cases, stages I-IV) and applied without refitting to the independent Colorado Lung Cancer Cohort (n=488; 211 controls, 277 cases). Analyses were prespecified; reporting followed TRIPOD+AI. Findings uLCI achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.906 (95% CI 0.887-0.926) in NCI-MD and 0.748 (0.701-0.793) in the independent Colorado cohort. Scores rose monotonically across stages in both cohorts (Spearman rho=0.69 and 0.45; both p<0.0001). Stage-specific discrimination was preserved from stage I to IV (NCI-MD 0.900-0.927; Colorado 0.722-0.843). Net reclassification improvement over clinical variables was 1.24 (1.14-1.36) and 0.74 (0.56-0.90). uLCI tertiles stratified post-resection survival in stage I-II disease (adjusted hazard ratio 2.03, 1.26-3.27). Interpretation uLCI is an independently validated, interpretable urinary risk index that detects lung cancer across all stages, with monotonic stage progression and post-resection prognostic value. Its false-positive rate compares favourably with published estimates for LDCT and cell-free-DNA assays, supporting prospective head-to-head evaluation as a non-invasive triage tool, including in screening-ineligible populations. Funding Intramural Research Program, Center for Cancer Research, National Cancer Institute, US National Institutes of Health.

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Verification of Self-Reported HPV Vaccination in the Initial Cohorts of the Botswana National Immunization Programme, 2023-2024

Ramogola-Masire, D.; Mathoma, A.; Masono, M.; Masole, M.; Phiri, S.; Omolo, J.; Lewis, R.; Morroni, C.; Luckett, R.; Markowitz, L.; Gargano, J. W.

2026-07-01 public and global health 10.64898/2026.06.23.26355877 medRxiv
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Botswana launched a national female-only school-based 2-dose HPV vaccination programme among 9-13-year-olds in 2015. During a 2023-2024 vaccine impact study among women aged 18-22 years recruited from the University of Botswana and Gaborone-area HIV clinics, we compared self-reported HPV vaccination to school and health facility records. Of 450 women, 446 self-reported HPV vaccination (301: 1-dose, 135: 2-dose, 10: 3-dose). Vaccination status was verified for 429/450 (95%); one was not vaccinated, 52 (12%) had 1 dose, 344 (80%) 2 doses, and 32 (7%) 3 doses. Agreement on [&ge;]1 dose was >99%; dose-specific agreement was 37% (159/429); 256 (60%) underreported and 14 (3%) overreported number of doses. While time- and resource-intensive, nationwide vaccination verification without a vaccination registry was feasible. Results suggest high vaccination coverage, including high at least 2-dose coverage. Self-report of at least 1 dose was highly accurate, but number of doses was often underreported.

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Cancer trends in England in younger adults from 2001-2023: comparing incidence, mortality and stage at diagnosis

berrington de gonzalez, a.; O'Brien, E.; Richards, Z.; Frost, R.; Shiels, M.; Macklin-Doherty, A.; Garcia-Closas, M.

2026-07-02 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.30.26356042 medRxiv
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Objectives To compare trends in incidence and mortality rates for cancers with rising incidence in younger adults in England, and to assess whether increasing incidence is observed for early-stage, late-stage or both types of disease. Methods and analysis We used cancer incidence and mortality data from English National Disease Registration Service (2001-2023). Analyses focused on 12 cancers with increasing incidence (on average) in younger adults (20-49 years) and more than 500 cases diagnosed in 2023. Trends were quantified by estimating the average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) using Joinpoint regression and by calculating the excess number of cancer cases in 2023 compared to 2001. Age-standardised rates (ASRs) of early (stage 1-2) and late-stage (stage 3-4) disease were compared between 2013 (the earliest year available) to 2023. Results There were 31,385 cancers diagnosed in younger adults in 2023 compared to 244,384 in older adults. The most common cancers diagnosed in younger adults were female breast (n=8,504), colorectal (n=2,977) and melanoma (n=2,767). Of the 12 cancers that were increasing in younger adults between 2001 and 2023, only two also had increasing mortality rates: endometrial (AAPC[95%CI]= incidence 2.9%[2.4-3.4%] and mortality 4.0%[2.1-6.0%]) and colorectal cancer (AAPC[95%CI]= incidence 3.2%[2.8-3.6%] and mortality 1.9%[1.1-2.7%]). For thyroid cancer mortality rates were stable and for the other cancers (female breast, testicular, ovarian, kidney, brain, prostate, Hodgkin lymphoma and leukaemia) although incidence rates were increasing, mortality rates were decreasing, on average. Of the ten cancers with available stage data six showed increases in incidence rates for both early and late-stage disease between 2013 and 2023. Four cancers showed increases only in late-stage disease (female breast, ovarian, melanoma and Hodgkin lymphoma), while thyroid cancer showed an increase only in early-stage disease. Conclusions These population-wide analyses of national data from England, combining cancer incidence, mortality and stage-stratified incidence trends, highlight several public health and research priorities. These include identifying the causes of increasing colorectal cancer incidence in younger adults, given the marked increases in mortality and late-stage disease, and of increasing breast cancer incidence, which affects the largest number of younger adults and is increasing only for late-stage disease.

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Biological processes linking soft drink consumption with site-specific cancer risk within the Global Cancer Update Programme (CUP Global)

Fontvieille, E.; Ahmadi, N.; Mahamat-saleh, Y.; Hashem, N.; Lauby-Secretan, B.; Gunter, M. J.; Tabung, F. K.; Turner, S. D.; Kok, D. E.; Jones, L.; Herceg, Z.; Simpson, R. J.; Chan, D.; Tsilidis, K. K.; Jayedi, A.; Clary, C.; Croker, H.; Mitrou, P.; Riboli, E.; Hursting, S.; Lewis, S. J.; Dossus, L.

2026-07-16 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.07.13.26356051 medRxiv
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This review evaluates the biological pathways linking soft drink consumption with the risk of several cancers within the framework of the Global Cancer Update Programme (CUP Global). Soft drink consumption has been associated with increased risk of multiple cancers, and glucose or insulin dysregulation has been proposed as a potential underlying mechanism. We applied a three-stage framework. In the first stage, we identified insulin sensitivity as the key biological process potentially linking soft drink consumption (sugar-sweetened or artificially sweetened) to cancer risk, with glucose-related and insulin-related biomarkers as potential intermediate phenotypes, using a combination of expert knowledge and a web-based text mining tool. In the second stage, we conducted targeted PubMed searches to identify studies examining associations between consumption of soft drinks and these intermediate phenotypes (IPs) and between these IPs and the risk of several cancers in adult humans. In the third stage, the evidence was evaluated by the Expert Committee on Cancer Mechanisms (MEC), who assessed the strength of the evidence for these associations. The MEC concluded that there was weak evidence supporting a role of glucose or insulin-related processes as a potential mechanistic pathway linking the consumption of sugar-sweetened or artificially sweetened beverages to the risk of various cancers evaluated.

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Integrated molecular and functional profiling identifies E0771 as a basal-like triple-negative breast cancer model

Baxter, D.; Elvira-Lopez, J.; Isern, M. d. M.; Huaca, J. V.; Blasco, M. T.; Gomis, R.; Canovas, B.; Nebreda, A. R.

2026-07-15 cancer biology 10.64898/2026.07.14.738420 medRxiv
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Breast cancer is a heterogeneous disease whose clinical management relies heavily on accurate molecular subtyping. The murine E0771 mammary carcinoma cell line is widely used in preclinical studies, yet its molecular identity remains controversial, with reports variably classifying it as luminal B or triple-negative. In this study, we performed an integrated molecular and functional characterization of two independently sourced E0771 cell line stocks to resolve this discrepancy. Both stocks were genetically authenticated and exhibited concordant phenotypes. Immunohistochemical and molecular analyses demonstrated absence of oestrogen and progesterone receptors, classifying E0771 as triple-negative. Functionally, E0771 cells showed no transcriptional response to oestrogen and displayed resistance to endocrine therapy both in vitro and in vivo. Collectively, our results establish E0771 as an oestrogen-independent, basal-like triple-negative breast cancer model, supporting its appropriate use in studies of hormone-resistant breast cancer biology.

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Diabetes as a Driver of Financial Toxicity Among U.S. Cancer Survivors: A Nationally Representative Analysis of NHIS 2021-2024

Tewari, J.; Tewari, V.; Qidwai, K. A.; Shah, A.; Tewari, A.; Tewari, V.; Narula, H.

2026-07-14 oncology 10.64898/2026.07.12.26357889 medRxiv
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Background: Financial toxicity is an increasingly recognized survivorship issue, but whether diabetes identifies a distinct high-risk financial-toxicity phenotype among U.S. cancer survivors is not well characterized. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study using pooled 2021-2024 National Health Interview Survey Sample Adult data. Adults were classified into four mutually exclusive groups: neither cancer nor diabetes, diabetes only, cancer only, and cancer plus diabetes. The primary outcome was any financial toxicity, defined as cost-related care disruption or medication underuse in the prior 12 months. Survey-weighted prevalence estimates and multivariable Poisson regression were used to calculate adjusted prevalence ratios (aPRs). Results: The weighted analytic population included 210.4 million adults with neither condition, 20.6 million with diabetes only, 20.9 million with cancer only, and 4.3 million with both cancer and diabetes. Any financial toxicity was present in 18.8%, 18.8%, 11.6%, and 17.2% of these groups, respectively. Among cancer survivors, diabetes was associated with higher prevalence of any financial toxicity (aPR 1.51, 95% CI 1.33-1.73), inability to afford prescriptions (aPR 1.71, 95% CI 1.40-2.08), skipped medication doses (aPR 1.91, 95% CI 1.48-2.46), any emergency department visit (aPR 1.35, 95% CI 1.24-1.47), and [&ge;]2 emergency department visits (aPR 1.55, 95% CI 1.32-1.83). In treatment-stratified analyses, the burden was greatest among insulin-treated survivors. Conclusions: Cancer survivors with diabetes represent a high-risk financial-toxicity phenotype despite frequent healthcare contact.

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Socioeconomic Determinants of Guideline-Concordant Therapy for Early-Stage Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer: A Population-Based Analysis from Appalachian and Non-Appalachian Ohio, 2004-2015

Martin, J.; Waugh, W.

2026-06-23 oncology 10.64898/2026.06.20.26356121 medRxiv
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Purpose: To examine the relative contributions of insurance, county-level poverty, and other socioeconomic factors, as compared with Appalachian geography, to receipt of guideline-concordant therapy for early-stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) in Appalachian and non-Appalachian Ohio. Methods: Retrospective population-based cohort study using the Ohio Cancer Incidence Surveillance System. We identified adults diagnosed with early-stage NSCLC between 2004 and 2015 (N=26,756). The primary outcome was receipt of guideline-concordant local therapy (surgery or definitive radiation). Rural-urban classification used USDA Rural-Urban Continuum Codes. Multivariable logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models assessed predictors of treatment and survival, with E-values, race-stratified models, and propensity score weighting as sensitivity analyses. Findings: Median age was 71 years; 50.3% were male, 83.8% non-Hispanic White, and 20.4% Appalachian. Overall, 83.6% received guideline-concordant local therapy (59.6% surgery, 24.0% radiation). In adjusted analysis, Medicaid (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0.53, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.44-0.63; adjusted risk ratio [RR] 0.94, 0.91-0.96), county-level poverty >20% (OR 0.77, 95% CI 0.68-0.87; RR 0.96, 0.95-0.98), and unmarried status were independently associated with lower therapy receipt, whereas Appalachian residence was associated with modestly higher receipt (OR 1.17, 95% CI 1.06-1.29; RR 1.02, 1.01-1.04). Therapy rates converged across regions over the study period (year x Appalachian interaction p<0.001). Mortality was independently associated with lack of local therapy (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 4.33, 95% CI 4.10-4.56), Medicaid (HR 1.25, 95% CI 1.14-1.37), and poverty >20% (HR 1.13, 95% CI 1.07-1.20). Conclusions: Socioeconomic factors, particularly Medicaid insurance and county-level poverty, were the patient characteristics most strongly associated with lower receipt of guideline-concordant therapy, whereas Appalachian residence was not a barrier. Findings support targeted interventions addressing insurance-related and poverty-related barriers to lung cancer care in high-poverty communities regardless of geographic designation.